Canadian Carbon Pricing Series
The federal–provincial architecture for industrial carbon pricing in Canada — TIER, GGPPA, BC OBPS, Ontario EPS, WCI Quebec, and the CFR — plus policy commentary on the bilateral agreements and benchmark resets that shape it.
By Koorosh Behrang • Updated
8 Articles • Active SeriesMarket Insights — Latest
CD-AB-TIER-ELEC-2026
Alberta’s Power Transition Has Reshaped TIER Compliance DemandElectricity’s true-up obligation fell 9.68 Mt between 2020 and 2025, more than the province-wide decline. The forward model shows a larger, lower-emissions fleet owing 3.28 Mt in 2040 against 3.20 Mt in 2025. By Koorosh Behrang • • 8 min read Read the Analysis → |
What’s Inside ▶ The coal decade — 12.88 Mt to 3.20 Mt, and why it cannot repeat ▶ How much of the coal decline gas absorbed ▶ Renewables — more generation, fewer credits per MWh ▶ The outlook to 2040 — 26% more power, a flat obligation ▶ What it means for generators, developers and credit buyers |
Policy Commentary — Article 07
CD-AB-TIER-2026
Alberta TIER Compliance Fell 21% Since 2023, and Almost None of It Was AbatementTotal compliance fell from 20.1 Mt in 2023 to 15.9 Mt in 2025, the lowest since TIER began. Coal conversion and the end of the federal fuel charge account for the whole decline — strip those out and the obligation has risen every year since 2020. By Koorosh Behrang • • 9 min read Read the Analysis → |
What’s Inside ▶ The 21% decline — 20.1 Mt to 15.9 Mt, 2023 to 2025 ▶ SGER and CCIR before TIER — and the 2020 reset ▶ What happened in 2024, and again in 2025 ▶ The underlying trend — +84% outside coal and aggregates ▶ Fund payments and the bank — $302m in 2025, down from $857m |
Policy Commentary — Article 06
CD-ON-EPS-ELEC-2026
Ontario’s Electricity Sector Carries the EPS, and Cannot Create a CreditElectricity carried 45% of compliance demand in 2024 and has never issued a credit. Method B fixes the benchmark at 310 t/GWh, so the position is arithmetic on gas output. By Koorosh Behrang • • 9 min read Read the Analysis → |
What’s Inside ▶ Why Method B makes the position a function of output alone ▶ The refurbishment gap — 4.43 Mt to 8.81 Mt on 23 facilities ▶ IESO 2026 outlook — gas peaks at 44.08 TWh in 2031 ▶ Clean Electricity Regulations — Alberta suspension, national review ▶ What would actually move the position, and what will not |
Policy Commentary — Article 05
CD-ON-EPS-PERF-2026
Ontario EPS Market Performance: What Three Compliance Years ShowObligations grew 56% to 4.83 Mt while credit creation grew 20%. The province’s EEU sales clear 83% of compliance, which makes the EEU charge — not scarcity — the price that runs the market. By Koorosh Behrang • • 8 min read Read the Analysis → |
What’s Inside ▶ The program in numbers — 219 facilities, 4.83 Mt obligation ▶ Creators and obligators — electricity 45%, cement 42% of EPUs ▶ EPU–EEU dynamics — retirements first exceeded creation ▶ The bank — 0.82 Mt, about a sixth of one year’s need ▶ The price — EPU at $70.08 against the $80 EEU charge |
Policy Commentary — Article 04
CD-CCP-REV-2026
Canadian Carbon Markets Since the 2025 Election: A Chronological ReviewFifteen months that removed the consumer fuel charge, opened exits from voluntary industrial coverage, reset the federal benchmark through bilateral agreements, and expanded the WCI market. By Koorosh Behrang • • 8 min read Read the Review → |
What’s Inside ▶ Which system applies where — the July 2026 map ▶ Full timeline — every milestone, Mar 2025 to Jul 2026 ▶ Opt-out amendments — federal OBPS s. 7.1 + Ontario EPS ▶ The Alberta and BC deals — $95 to $140, compensation ▶ WCI — California to 2045, Washington linkage for 2027 |
Policy Commentary — Article 03
CD-CCP-REG-2026
Evolving Carbon Pricing Regulations in Canada: Impact & What to WatchThe benchmark now runs to $140 by 2040, Alberta gets a credit floor, BC gets compensated, and Saskatchewan sits outside every operating system. A market-by-market read after the July 2026 package. By Koorosh Behrang • • 12 min read Read Commentary → |
What’s Inside ▶ The new national trajectory — $115 in 2030, $140 by 2040 ▶ Federal OBPS — MB, PEI, YT, NU + the unimplemented SK backstop ▶ TIER — the $60 floor convergence trade and Pathways stringency deal ▶ BC OBPS — first federally compensated benchmark downshift ▶ Ontario EPS — a ~$25/t ceiling cut in a closed market |
Policy Commentary — Article 02
CD-CCS-QP-2026-06
Alberta’s CCS Quantification Protocol v2.1: Mechanics, the CFR Credit Stack, and Natural Gas System ApplicabilityAlberta is consulting on the protocol that decides who gets paid to sequester CO₂. The draft tightens DAC economics, codifies hub accounting, and locks the carve-out that makes the TIER + CFR + ITC stack work. By Koorosh Behrang • • 12 min read Read Commentary → |
What’s Inside ▶ v2.0 vs v2.1 changelog — what changed and why ▶ New Section 4.3.3 P8 — DAC off-site low-CI electricity ▶ New Appendix E — multi-source hub reversal accounting ▶ TIER + CFR + ITC credit stack modeled at ~$398/t ▶ NG-sector applicability — what qualifies, what doesn’t |
Policy Commentary — Article 01
CD-CA-MOU-IA-2026
Canada–Alberta MOU Implementation Agreement: Certainty Delivered, Ambition DeferredA 14-year TIER price schedule, the first-ever credit price floor, and a jointly funded CfD backstop — and because the federal government agreed, the GGPPA benchmark resets to this trajectory. By Koorosh Behrang • • 10 min read Read Commentary → |
What’s Inside ▶ Locked TIER price — $95 to $140 by 2040 ▶ First credit price floor — $60 (2030) → $110 (2040) ▶ Joint CfDs — up to 75 Mt at $1.2 B liability ▶ CCUS ITC extended to 2035 + 20% CFR upstream floor ▶ Section 1.6.1 — GGPPA benchmark resets to Alberta’s path |
Markets Covered
Federal & Provincial Carbon Pricing Systems
The provincial industrial carbon markets that operate under the federal GGPPA benchmark.
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Series Lead
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Koorosh BehrangFounder, Climate Decode 10+ years across WCI, Ontario EPS, Alberta TIER, BC OBPS, Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations, the EU ETS and Shipping ETS, and FuelEU Maritime — integrating carbon pricing exposure, credit strategy, and regulatory trajectory into capital allocation and long-term compliance planning. Speak to Koorosh → |